Friday, March 9, 2007

Thoughts on the Big Ten Opening Round

Games played

Minnesota vs. Michigan
Michigan State vs. Northwestern
Penn State vs. Illinois

The three favored teams all won today even though none of them won in impressive fashion but then again that’s probably they were unable to recieve byes and had to play in the first round.

Minnesota- 40
Michigan State- 49

Congrats to both Michigan and Minnesota on playing in the lowest scoring game in Big Ten Tournament history and extra congrats to Minnesota for putting  up the single lowest point total in Big Ten Tournament history.  What a better way to put an end to Minnesota season than by breaking a dubious record such as that?
Michigan can’t feel overly happy about this victory but at least they prevailed to see another day.  Unfortently, they’ll face the #1 team in the country in Ohio State tomorrow.  They’ll need to address some serious offensive issues in order to hang with the Buckeyes tomorrow.  Michigan shot 27% from the floor against Minnesota and had only one player(Dion Harris) score in double figures.  For some reason Michigan went away from their big man Courney Sims on the interior as he only had five shots and only scored four points.  Small forward Lester Abram continued to add to his very poor season with a one for ten shooting performance to go along with his whopping one rebound.  This senior class for Michigan has been around for a while but they’re still just as inconsistent as ever and in order for them to beat Ohio State tomorrow they’ll need to get Sims more touches and they’ll need to find a way to either keep Abram from shooting the basketball or find a way to get him off the court.

Michigan State- 62
Northwestern- 57

How bad is Northwestern?  So bad that they had a chance to tie this game with a three pointer but instead they failed to do the easiest thing in the game of basketball and that’s catch the basketball.  If you haven’t see the play that I am talking about..you should because it will make you feel a lot about better your basketball abilities no matter how bad you are at basketball.
In the end Michigan State hung on thanks to Drew Neitzel who has been carrying this team on his back all year.  He finished the game with 20 points and handed out six assists.  Freshman forward Raymar Morgan chipped in 15 points and 5 boards as well. 
Michigan State’s next contest will be against Wisconsin who they’ll have played three times in the span of six games.  Both games during the season were close and both teams ended up splitting.  Expect another low scoring battle battle between these two Big Ten powerhouses tomorrow.

Illinois- 66
Penn State- 60

Penn State’s zone defense was carved up by the Illini today in what was probably the best performance of the day in the Big Ten.  Illinios got a big game out of Chester Frazier who had a career high 21 points and hit five threes.  Forward Warren Carter also hit three three pointers and finished with 19 points.  Guard Richard McBrick dished out 10 assists even though he missed nearly everything he shot(as usual). 
Thanks to the Illini, Penn State’s season is finally over.  Coming into the 2007 season this was a Penn State team that had reasonably high expectations but they failed miserably on just about all accounts this year.  Illinois’ next game will be against Indiana which should make for an extremely heated and intense quarterfinal basketball game.

Posted by hater at 01:51:21 | Permalink | Comments (1) »

Thursday, March 8, 2007

Pac Ten Tournament

Second Round Games

Arizona vs. Oregon

Who wins?  Arizona
Why?  These are two very evenly matched teams.  Both of them are very good at executing their offenses, however, both of them have had trouble defending at times this year.  Arizona is a very soft basketball team defensively but a very skilled basketball team offensively.  They have good size and athleticism on the perimeter and have a proven and experienced playmaker at the point in Mustafa Shakur.  Oregon is a rather smallish team that tries to beat teams by using a four guard lineup and spreading the court out to use their quickness and perimeter shooting.
Arizona is playing their best basketball right now and they’ll be ready to take advantage of their size and athleticism offensively against a veyr average defensive team in Oregon.  Oregon’s best shot at winning is going to be their perimeter shooting.  If they get hot from the outside and stay hot they’re extremely hard to beat.

Posted by hater at 19:46:13 | Permalink | Comments (1) »

Big 12 Opening Round Breakdown

Opening Round Games

Baylor vs. Missouri

Who wins?  Missouri(barely)
Why?  This will be the battle of guards and perimeter players.  Whichever team gets better play out of their guards will win this game.  Last game Missouri’s guards played better and they beat Baylor 78-71 but that game was at Missouri, this one won’t be.  However, last game, Baylor got 27 points and 12 boards out of forward Kevin Rogers but Rogers is questionable for this game because of a sprained ankle.
The book on Missouri is that they like to press on the defensive end and not rebound the basketball at all.  Of late though their pressure defense hasn’t been as effective and against Baylor they weren’t able to force that many turnovers.  Baylor is a quick team that sometimes plays a lineup that appears more like a 6′0 foot and under team than that of a Big 12 basketball team and in their game against Missouri they were without one of their best players in guard Aaron Bruce. 
Baylor has good enough guards to handle Missouri’s pressure defense and they’re also a better rebounding team than Missouri.  The main difference between these two teams though is that Missouri is a more consistent defensive team and Missouri has more athletes, depth and size than Baylor.  If Baylor takes care of the basketball and hits some shots from the outside they have a very good chance at beating Missouri, however, with their main big guy questionable for the game in Kevin Rogers you have to give the slight edge to Missouri in a game that I expect to go down to the wire.

Missouri- 72
Baylor- 70

Nebraska vs. Oklahoma State

Who wins?  Oklahoma State
Why?  These two teams played three days ago and both of these teams put on quite the shooting clinic hitting 27 threes between the two of them.  The main difference in the game ended up being the fact Aleks Maric gave Nebraska interior production and balance offensively while Mario Boggan was held in check for Olahoma State.  Don’t expect Boggan to have another lackluster game in this one.  He’s one of the better offensive players in the Big 12. 
These are very similiar teams in that they both have a quality big man and they both like to shoot from the outside.  Nebraska is a little more consistent shooting the basketball but they also don’t have the perimeter firepower that OSU does with JamesOn Curry.  Curry and Boggan will need to play better for OSU this time around because they dont have a player that can stop Maric on the interior and Nebraska does a good job of getting him the ball inside which opens up the perimeter for their shooters.
Both of these teams have the ability to put up points but this game just like any other game will likely come down to which team defends better and rebounds the basketball better.  Neither team is all that great defensively but one is much better on the boards and that’s OSU.  It also doesn’t hurt that OSU will have freshman guard Obi Muonelo in this game.  He’s been out most of the year but played in the game @ Nebraska three days ago and lit the Cornhuskers up with eight three pointers.

Oklahoma State- 81
Nebraska- 75

Oklahoma vs. Iowa State

Who wins?  Oklahoma
Why?  Because Iowa State is awful.  Neither one of these teams have all that much offensive firepower and this game could be an ugly one to watch but the fact of the matter though is that while OU may not be talented offensively they are a very solid all around defensive team.  Iowa State is not a bad defensive team either but they’re not not on the same level defensively as that of OU which plays a very physical brand of basketball. 
Iowa State relies heavily(too heavily) on guard Michael Taylor to score for them and that typically involves him taking a lot of bad shots and Iowa State losing.  Add to the fact that Iowa State will be facing one of the best defensive teams in the Big 12 and you have a recipe for another 7 for 25 games out of Taylor and an Iowa State loss.  On the other side of the ball you have a team in OU that struggles to score the basketball as well but they at least have a more balanced offensive attack and they do have an improving go to scorer in forward Nate Carter. 
In the end this game will likely be ugly and low scoring and will probably come down to which ever team rebounds the basketball better and takes better care of the basketball because neither of these teams are offensive powerhouses.  OU is better defensively and are a better rebounding team and that should be enough for them to get a by a below average Iowa State team tomorrow.

Oklahoma- 61
Iowa State- 55

Colorado vs. Texas Tech

Who wins?  Texas Tech
Why?  Because Colorado is the worst team in the Big 12 by a long shot and that’s really all you need to know about this game.  Really, that’s it.

Texas Tech- 74
Colorado- 60 

Posted by hater at 08:36:38 | Permalink | Comments (1) »

ACC Tournament Preview

Opening round breakdown and predictions

Clemson vs. Florida State

Who will win?  Clemson

Why?  Clemson won the first two meetings this year and they won quite comfortably the second time around.  Florida State is not a very good defensive team and Clemson is one of the better offensive teams in the ACC.  Will Florida State be able to defend Clemson?  Probably not. 
However, Florida State is a fairly solid offensive as well and they have argaubly the best player in the ACC in Al Thorton.  Thorton is the hardest player in the ACC to match-up with and he’ll likely get his 20 points against Clemson.  He’ll need to get help though and hopefully guard Toney Douglas will be ready to play.  Douglas is coming off an injury but is expected to be in the lineup for tomorrows game.
Florida State is a very small team that relies on spreading the court and shooting from the perimeter.  Clemson has the athletes on the perimeter to match-up with Florida State’s guard though and they should be able to cover Florida State defensively much better than Florida State can cover Clemson defensively.  That’s more of a knock of Florida State’s defense as opposed to their offense.  Playing good team defense has been a problem for Florida State all year.
Neither one of these teams are great rebounding teams but Clemson does have more size and strength up front.  As far as tempo goes neither one of these teams is afraid to get out and run but if this does turn into a track meet it’s probably an advantage to Clemson because they’re a better transition team and are better at forcing turnovers defensively.
Unless Florida State get’s hot from the outside they’ll likely need Thorton to put up 30 plus points in order to knock off Clemson tomorrow.  It’s not that Clemson is that much better than Florida State but it’s more so the fact that Clemson can match-up with Florida State’s guards defensively but Florida State cannot match-up with Clemson on the interior in anyway shape or form.

Clemson- 73
Florida State- 67

Miami vs. Maryland

Who wins?  Maryland
Why?  Because Maryland is simply much better and they’re playing very good basketball currently.  Earlier in the year these two teams played and Miami beat Maryland at Maryland but that was a much different Maryland basketball team.  Miami won that game while shooting 31% from the field and turned the ball over 15 times to only 7 assists.  However, Maryland shot 22% from the field and were severely outrebounded by Miami.
The only real edge Miami appears to have in this game is that the game is going to be played in their home state.  Maryland is a freakishly athletic team that should be more than capable of shutting down Miami’s offense.  The Canes are not a very efficient offensive team, do not have a lot of playmakers and have no interior offense.  They rely very heavily on guards Jack McClinton, Anthony Harris and Denis Clemente to hit shots from the outside and that’s just not gonna be enough against this Maryland team.  Not this time around.
That’s because this Maryland team is playing very good and very crisp offense and they not will shoot 22% from the floor tomorrow.  They’re getting excellent guard play from a pair of freshmen point guards in Vasquez and Hayes.  Both of these guards are no longer freshmen and with the way they’re running the offense they should be able to generate enough offense to get by a very pour all around team in Miami.
Where Maryland can tend to struggle is with turnovers and rebounding.  Miami is not a team that likes to pressure the basketball though and they have sure enough ball handlers to handle Maryland’s pressure defense so this game will likely not be played at a frentic pace.  However, with the way Maryland’s upperclassmen in Strawberry, Jones, Gist and Ibekwe are playing offensively they should be able to outscore Miami in a halfcourt game if needed because they have much more length, experience, skill and athleticism than that of Miami.
The only real chance Miami has of winning this game is if they pound the offensive glass, take good care of the basketball and play inspired defense.  All in all Miami is not a very good team but they have proven that they can beat Maryland because they do take good care of the basketball and they do rebound the basketball but this Maryland team is playing great and this Miami team is not.  Maryland wins.

Maryland- 74
Miami- 59

North Carolina State vs. Duke

Who will win?  Duke
Why?  Let’s face it, folks, this was the perfect draw for Duke.  It’s well known that this Duke team struggles against athletic teams that can get them to turn the ball over and beat them off the dribble defensively.  This NCST team is not that athletic, they don’t play good defense, they don’t have depth, they’re shaky with the basketball and they don’t like to pressure the basketball.  These are all areas that teams tend to use to try and exploit Duke. 
What NCST does do well is play offense in the half court setting.  Unfortunetly, their style of offense plays right in line with Duke’s style of defense.  Duke is a very solid and smart man to man defense team along as they’re not playing against a superior team in terms of quickness and athleticism and this NCST team is not superior in those departments.  In other words, Duke should be able to defend NCST but will NCST be able to defend Duke?  Probably not since they have a hard time to defending just about everyone. 
This is not a great Duke team but they’re good enough to beat NCST.  They’re a better defensive team by a long shot, they’re a much better rebounding team and they have the type of balance offensively in terms of inside and outside scoring to really punish this NCST team.  Expect Duke to pressure NCST and try and force this game into a more uptempo type of game.  NCST does not have a true point guard and when teams are able to get them out of their half court sets they’re extremely vulnerable because they’re not deep enough or athletic enough to play at a fast pace. 

Duke- 78
North Carolina State- 65

Georgia Tech vs. Wake Forest

Who wins?  Georgia Tech
Why?  Because Javaris Crittenton plays great against teams that do not pressure the basketball.  Expect Crittenton to have career day against Wake Forest.  Thus far this year against Wake he’s averaged 15 points and 8 assists but only 3 turnovers against Wake and he’s playing as good as he’s played all year right now.  Georgia Tech should look to pressure Wake Forest and take center Kyle Visser out of the game because he’s Wake Forests only consistent scorer.  Georgia Tech is a very good transition basketball team and Wake Forest is a very turnover prone basketball team that likes to play at a slower pace.  However, when you can’t take care of the basketball it’s hard to play at your own pace and that is going to be Skip Prossers main focus heading into this game.  How to take care of the basketball.
Defensively, both of these teams have been extremely pour this year.  In fact both of these teams rank right near the bottom off the ACC defensively.  Both teams are more offensive minded but one team is much better offensively and that’s Georgia Tech.  Tech has the better athletes and the better overall talent.  The only real advantage Wake Forest has is inside with Kyle Viser.  In both games against Tech, Visser more or less had his way with the Tech big men.  He’ll need to play outstanding once again against Georgia Tech but unless Wake Forest finds some way to play defense and take care of the basketball they likely be packing their bags.

Georgia Tech- 84
Wake Forest- 71

Posted by hater at 04:21:50 | Permalink | Comments (1) »